The Opportunity Cost of Risk
Spark, Enthusiasm and Real Risk
Mid March 2026, crazy how much a couple years of difference can make.
Currently I’m solely going in on this sports betting journey, through the years this has been a side project that I’ve tried to solve but never really approached in the right way until about 14 months ago, and only about 3 months with this all-in approach.
I wanted to clean my head on 2 things I’ve been thinking about.
The first is this theory I have that everyone already knows WHAT they want to do.
They just either do not pursue it as “it’s not something people can do” or logically talk themselves out of it…. Usually with really good, smart, legitimate excuses.
I truly believe people know what they want to do but just don’t pursue it or tell others/themselves.
This could be anything, but I think we find what we want to do very early on, but then get life-f*cked and decide to do something more traditional, less personal and more sh*t.
One guy I met recently was a genius, all A* grades, firsts, masters, going to do consulting in London. Also very friendly, down to earth, social, normal guy.
But the spark just wasn’t there.
It’s almost like in every decision he’d decided to take the most logical choice, and actually had got every single one right.
But he never once took a step back to think about what he actually wanted.
The other side of this is the more “bitter at life” person.
This was another person I re-met this month after not seeing for a long long time.
After 20 seconds of small talk, the phrase “life is a war” came up….
This feels like a bad way to live to me.
Whether this heavy pessimism is a primarily a British thing or it’s a mentality thing I’m unsure, but the symptoms are everywhere, usually with a general lack of ambition and enthusiasm about anything.
How to decide what you want to do.
As always, mainly writing this for myself, but just wish I’d made decisions based specifically on what I personally wanted to do sooner, so for anyone thinking about this now, here’s some thoughts.
Don’t start with pure passion but come at it from a game.
Naval’s quote on this is perfect.
“Find what feels like play to you, but looks like work to others.”
This translates to so many nuances:
What do you find easier than others.
More fun.
Addictive.
Where does your mind wander.
Most people have some loose ideas on this.
Some people draw or paint, ride bikes, read, sing, watch birds or trains, listen to music, cook, play Chess or any other a million things.
But unlike passions or things you like, these are the things you do actively.
I like stand up comedy.
I’m not writing comedy.
That’s something I passively like.
It’s not something I actively do though.
This is why I prefer nuanced small-talk phrases like “what are you working on” vs “what do you do”.
Or “what are you working towards” is my favorite one, as some people get confused at the question, others understand it instantly and start taking about something they are building/doing, which they find far more interesting than their job or current set-up in most cases.
This also gives you an opportunity to ask follow up questions to see how legit someone is.
Someone doing 3 hours a week or something they called “their dream” is kidding themselves, if someone is doing 40 hours a week alongside a full time job, you can be pretty sure they are invested.
The difference now, in my opinion, is that choosing what you want to do can be supercharged by AI.
If your choice is real, nuanced and specific (to you and the niche/market), there’s literally zero reason why you cannot do anything if you learn both the specific skillset of the thing + How to use AI to leverage that specific skillset.
The 3 Key Components
Start with 3 key decisions:
Would you do this thing over anything else?
Is this active not passive?
Would simply working on this, by default = freedom?
Let me cover this last one so we’re on the same page.
By doing the thing, have you already won?
Let’s say your thing was coaching boxing, if you woke up everyday and coached boxers, both trying to get better yourself and helping people achieve their goals in that sphere, is that already success? Regardless of the level you or any of your students get to?
If the answer is yes and by doing-the-thing you have already won, then that’s your thing.
If the answer is no, then it’s not and you are still kidding yourself.
By doing the thing it gives you freedom.
The usual pushback I receive to this concept is about money or security.
Valid, but they are usually the same thing.
Money enables you to have more options, it’s a tool, but if you’re already pursuing your primary option that you would do above anything else, more money equates to doing the same thing anyway.
You might argue around having some variety, travel, nice things, all valid points, but the driver should be freedom to pursue your craft, to pursue mastery.
In some industries this concept is literally romanticized - artists, musicians, actors - that all grind for 20 years before “making it”.
Yet in other industries (literally everything else), it’s somewhat frowned upon? Or at best just seen as a bit weird.
If I had dropped out of Uni to become a professional sports bettor and during that grind period of X years had people ask what I do/how’s it going?
Ah it’s alright - I live in a £300/month rental space and program analytical models all day to bet on sports….
Sounds weird….
Yet painting or playing music till 4am is framed so differently.
But I think you have to talk about this during the grind.
After the fact is just almost cheating, when the musician is on 7-8 figure years, that’s irrelevant at that point, but the person sleeping in their van between gigs because they want to, that’s progress in the moment.
We’re taking this passion/game element, mixing it with the human desire to build or achieve something and layering on the freedom from the fact you can do it yourself.
It’s the 3 core pillars.
There’s obviously consequences because without it games are not fun.
There have to be stakes and risk.
There have to be downswings.
Without it, the game becomes boring.
In the same way that unlimited money, time and health actually sounds kind of boring.
Literally, a game you cannot die or fail in, is by definition boring, there has to be some kind of risk involved.
But the key difference is the type of risk, there’s always going to be risk in anything any of us do, but the type of risk is the key.
Opportunity cost is the risk.
What OTHER THING could you be doing?
Because if you have “no choice” (which is a lie but that’s a discussion for another time) then by definition you couldn’t be doing another thing anyway, hence there is no other thing to worry about, no opportunity cost.
Doing what you want to do, when you want to do it, for as long as you want to do it, is the most important thing to work towards.